The Great Australian Break

Australian Dollar Gold price closes on both on the weekly and monthly all time highs ending of May 2019, with a price of 1883aud per ounce. Looking at the technical picture, it couldn’t look more bullish.

Weekly Chart, shows Gold piercing the topside and breaking out of a 5 month range bound trade.

Monthly Close was above previous resistance set back in 2011 and 2016. Blowing through to the topside break.

Australia’s largest Gold miner, Newcrest Mining $NCM also has confirmed the move with a break of it’s 2016 highs, extending it’s solid run from early in the year.

$AXGD Gold miners index which is 50% NCM weighed, also broke out to new highs this week. All this is further evidence that we are possibly gearing up for a new leg higher in ASX listed Gold miners.

USD Gold price also has broken to out on Friday, on a cup and handle formation, The first test is the 1350-1360usd, if it can clear that level, 1450-1480usd beckons. But first test is 1350-1360usd level, which has acted as resistance for 6 years. For now, i am focusing on 1350 region, or what i like to call the ‘boulevard of broken dreams’ area.

Australian Dollar is at the bottom of it’s long term 4 year channel. I think it will bounce shortly, adding further fuel to help lift Gold, as an already crowded USD trade is due for a pullback. I still expect Gold to outpace the rise in the AUD, if AUD were to bounce in the short term. Note: Long term, i remain bearish AUD.

ASX Gold miners… Safe Haven status confirmed !

So many great stocks in the Gold realm on the ASX, it almost makes it impossible to keep up with the latest news. But i always look for the leaders to confirm the trend, as seen above with Newcrest. I view the below not as investment ideas, though they are quality, but leaders to confirm the trend.





All continuing to trend higher and at certain points of the cycle, they outperform one another, due to qrtly production, capex spend etc. But the trend is your friend as they say. Another tail wind developing, if the falling price of Oil. Oil has dropped circa 13% in the last month, and energy is a very high input cost for the miners. Should add relief to AISC if the face of a rising price of Gold, it is a double win for the bottom line.

OIL loses the 200/50ma could get nasty ! Watch out.

Mid tiers continue to surge too. The silent bull market !






Lagging small caps about to follow?

Below are all 1moz+ Developers/explorers.







For the Brave !



Conclusion, if the run in the AUD Gold miners continues and judging from the break of the AXGD, i think it will. I anticipate a spill over into the AUD small juniors and explorers who have underperformed thus far. This could be very exciting time to make some good gains. If the sector takes off in a big way, the small cap usually outperform, therefore i am ‘betting’ on the laggers to finally catch up to the nearly 1900aud Gold move. This is not financial advise, just written for educational purposes and my own amusement. Thank you for reading and Good luck with your trading.

7 thoughts on “The Great Australian Break

  1. Just found your blog, interesting reading! Do you know if any of these juniors have a high % management insider ownership?


    1. Hi Wil, thanks.

      In the Small Caps, $CAI $CMM $RED.. But best treat them as a trade mate. ASX jnrs always tend to disappoint if you hold them too long.

      All the best


  2. Hey 258.

    I follow you on twitter under the handle morganman777. Just wanted to say thankyou. Your analysis is always candid and to the point. Honesty is exceedingly hard to find in some industries, which is why I really appreciate your insights.


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